Natural Climate Change Model

A Natural Climate Change Model (NCCM) can be expressed as:

T_G = f (E_SI, E_M, F_CR^-1, F_SCP^-1, I_M, I_H, C_C, C_S^-1, HT^-1)

T_G is the Global Temperature.

E_SI is the Energy from Solar Irradiance

E_M is the Energy of Magmatic Heat Injection

F_CR is the Cosmic Rays Flux

F_SCP is the Solar Charged Particles Flux within the Solar Winds

I_M is the Intensity of the Magnetosphere (Earth’s Magnetic Field Strength)

I_H is the Intensity of the Heliopause (Sun’s Magnetic Field Strength)

C_C is the Concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

C_S is the Concentration of Sulfur Dioxide in the Upper Atmosphere.

HT is the Heat Transport mechanism that functions like a Thermal Safety Relief Valve.

The Energy released by the Sun (Solar Irradiance) (E_SI) is the major driver in the Natural Climate Change Model. The level of solar radiation is not constant. Solar radiation varies on an 11-year cycle when the sun undergoes a period of increased sunspot and magnetic activity referred to as the "solar maximum" followed by a quiet period referred to as the "solar minimum". Solar brightness also varies over geological time. Pang & Yau analyzed solar activity (frequency of sunspots, aurora sightings), and temperature data (carbon-14 in tree rings, beryllium-10 in polar ice cores) [1]. They discovered variations in solar radiation strongly correlate with Northern Hemisphere temperatures from the years 1620 to 1980. Refer to Figure 1. The variation of less than 1 % in total irradiance accounts for the majority of global temperature change during the past 360 years. Even in the near-term the sun’s output has measured variability. Willson and Mordvinov using satellite observations of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), have observed a 0.05 % increase per decade in the Sun’s radiant energy since the late 1970’s during the solar minima [2]. Refer to the Figure 2. This variability will account for some of the uptick in recent global temperatures.

Figure 1

Figure 2

The Energy from Magmatic Heat Injection (E_M) is released in surface heat flow through the oceanic and continental crust, and through undersea and surface volcanic eruptions. In general, this component is very small. During periods of massive flood volcanic eruptions, this element can inject significant quantities of thermal energy into the ocean and atmosphere. During these episodes, this element can predominate.

The Flux Rate of Cosmic Rays (F_CR) will inversely affect global temperatures. Cosmic rays govern ionization in the lower atmosphere, which produces clouds. Clouds are highly reflective and lower the sunlight absorbed by the planet. Cosmic rays are produced in supernovas. The flux rate of cosmic rays incident on the planet is not constant over geological time but will spike from the nearby explosion of supernovas. The uptick in the cosmic ray flux rate occurs as the solar system periodically crosses the Galactic spiral arms. This uptick correlates to major ice ages on Earth. The influence of cosmic rays is a major variable in the Natural Climate Change Model, which can account for approximately 66 percent of the variance in paleotemperature trends [3, 4, 5].

The Flux Rate of Solar Charged Particles (F_SCP) will inversely affect global temperatures in a similar manner as cosmic rays. Charged particles are ejected from the Sun during solar flares and coronal mass ejections. The flux rate of solar charged particles is periodic and varies on an 11-year cycle.

The Intensity of the Earth’s Magnetosphere (Earth’s Magnetic Field Strength) (I_M) will directly affect global temperature. As the Earth’s magnetic field strength declines, charged particles from outer space (cosmic rays) and from the Sun (solar charged particles) will find it easier to break through the magnetic shield that protects Earth. These particles then interact with humid air in tropical, subtropical and mid-latitude environments to produce tiny water droplets that become basic building blocks in forming clouds. These clouds moderate Earth’s temperature by reflecting solar radiation. This element of the Natural Climate Change Model is predominant during the transition times of magnetic pole reversals when the field strength approaches zero. Earth has sustained an appreciable loss (~5%) of magnetic field strength during the last century, most of this occurring since 1980.

The Intensity of the Heliopause (Sun’s Magnetic Field Strength) (I_H) will directly affect global temperatures. As the Sun’s magnetic field strength declines, charged particles from outer space (cosmic rays) will find it easier to break through the magnetic shield that protects our solar system. These particles then interact with humid air in tropical, subtropical and mid-latitude environments to produce tiny water droplets that become basic building blocks in forming clouds. These clouds moderate Earth’s temperature by reflecting solar radiation.

The Concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere (C_C) in high concentrations affects global temperatures. Carbon dioxide acts like an insulation blanket holding in magmatic and solar heat close to the planet’s surface. The carbon dioxide level on Earth is relatively low at approximately 350 ppm (parts per million). On the planet Venus, the carbon dioxide concentration is approximately 965,000 ppm. The carbon dioxide layer on Venus is the predominate element in holding the planet’s surface at 900^o F. During periods of massive flood volcanic eruptions, magma can inject significant quantities of carbon dioxide into Earth’s atmosphere elevating carbon dioxide levels to the tens or hundreds of thousands of ppm and becoming a major contributor to the Global Climate Change Model.

Even small Concentrations of Sulfur Dioxide in the Upper Atmosphere (C_S) will inversely affect global temperatures by shutting down solar heating on the planet surface. The planet Venus has only a minor concentration of sulfur dioxide (~ 150 ppm) in its upper atmosphere. But this concentration is sufficient to reflect 80 percent of the incoming solar radiation.¹ By contrast; the Earth atmosphere (with a SO₂ concentration of approximately 0.0002 ppm) reflects only 30 percent of solar radiation, primarily due to water cloud cover. During periods of mass flood volcanic eruptions on Earth, the magma injection of even minor amounts of sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere can significantly increase Earth’s albedos affecting global temperatures.

(1. Albedos value derived from Solar Flux Radiometer (LSFR) readings of 0.80 (+/- .02) Pioneer 13 Mission to Venus)

A Heat Transport (HT) mechanism provides a thermal safety valve for the planet. Water functions like a heat pump moving thermal energy from the Earth’s surface through the lower carbon dioxide layer, releasing the trapped heat and allowing it to be radiated into deep space. On the planet Venus, hydrochloric, hydrofluoric, and sulfuric acids provide this medium.

References: [1] Pang, K.D. and Yau, K.K. (2002)  EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 83, 481, 489-490. [2] Willson, R.C. and Mordvinov, A.V. (2003) Geophysical Research Letter 30/5, 3-1 to 3-4. [3] Shaviv, N.J. and Veizer, J. (2003) GSA Today, 13, 4-10. [4] Shaviv, N.J. (2002) Astro-Ph, 0207637. [5] Shaviv, N.J. (2002) Astro-Ph, 0209252.

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